PND Delta-Candle + Oscillator — Scenario Opportunity Study

NQ FUTURES · 2022-01 → 2026-07 · 1,158 SESSIONS · 113,440 EVENTS · TICK-DERIVED BARS
Sessions
1,158
2022-01 → 2026-07
Total events
113,440
S1 + S2 + S3
S1 candle-flips
53,967
med MFE 8 / MAE 4pt
S2 osc-crosses
26,808
med MFE 17 / MAE 12pt
S3 aligned
32,665
med MFE 10 / MAE 6pt
Opening-hr S2 MFE
29pt
p90 117pt (fat tail)
Best S1 ratio
1.82
MFE/MAE — cleanest
Costs
none
pure opportunity
What this measures. Three event types on the PND indicators, across every NQ session — how far price travels in favor (MFE) and against (MAE) from each event to the high/low, until the state resolves. Pure opportunity — no stops, targets, or costs. S1 candle flips colour · S2 the combined oscillator crosses zero · S3 candle and oscillator first agree.
Read the distribution, not the median. Every scenario is right-skewed — the p90 is ~4× the median, so a minority of events carry the big moves. The opening hour dominates (biggest MFE and MAE); it decays after 10:30 and power hour is no second peak. This is an opportunity map, not a P&L system — turning it into edge is trade management.

00  ·  Indicator Settings

Exact configuration behind every number and chart below.

① Multi-Confluence oscillator

Rolling periods5 / 10 / 15 bars
Price modeCloseClose
CVD smoothingWMA(10)
Displacement smoothingWMA(10)
Normalization lookback200 (asymmetric EMA)
DisplaySideBySide
Session reset08:30 ET (smoothing/norm global)
Score (S2/S3)(CVD-norm + Disp-norm) / 2 → zero-cross = sign flip

② Delta Candles (color)

Delta period15 bars
Displacement period15 (session-anchored)
Adaptive lookback60 bars
Neutral zone0.15 × avg
Max intensity2.0 × avg
Gradient power0.7
Displacement coloringON · Glow OFF
Colorsign of (tCVD + tPrice)/2 → bull / bear / neutral

01  ·  Opportunity by Scenario

Median & p90 favorable (MFE) and adverse (MAE) excursion, entry→high/low, until the state resolves.

ScenarioEventsBars(med)MFE medMFE p90MAE medMAE p90Ratio
S1 · Candle flip53,96738534191.82
S2 · Oscillator zero-cross26,80814177812361.36
S3 · Aligned (candle = oscillator)32,665610606231.67
MFE by time of day

02  ·  S1 Candle-flip — by Time of Day

Segment (ET)nbarsMFE p25p50p75p90MAE p25p50p75p90ratio
Pre-open 08:30–09:307,0593061847038151.77
Opening 09:30–10:307,391301340850717301.96
Late-morning 10:30–12:0010,72940927560512221.71
Midday 12:00–14:0014,1983072147049171.69
Afternoon 14:00–15:007,2823072045049171.8
Power hour 15:00–16:007,3083072042049171.87

03  ·  S2 Oscillator zero-cross — by Time of Day

Segment (ET)nbarsMFE p25p50p75p90MAE p25p50p75p90ratio
Pre-open 08:30–09:303,78813412347641017291.28
Opening 09:30–10:303,74814102965117102236531.34
Late-morning 10:30–12:005,32215720437871425381.38
Midday 12:00–14:006,94014516366861220311.37
Afternoon 14:00–15:003,47914615367161120311.36
Power hour 15:00–16:003,53111515336061120321.31

04  ·  S3 Aligned — by Time of Day

Segment (ET)nbarsMFE p25p50p75p90MAE p25p50p75p90ratio
Pre-open 08:30–09:304,48662722531410181.61
Opening 09:30–10:304,4857317489321021351.72
Late-morning 10:30–12:006,466721232622715261.62
Midday 12:00–14:008,51362925521612201.57
Afternoon 14:00–15:004,35162924541611201.64
Power hour 15:00–16:004,36451924471612201.64

05  ·  Daily Charts   — every session, expand a month

Each chart: colored line per event — solid = favorable (MFE), faint dashed = against (MAE), entry (•) → high/low reached (○). S1 blue · S2 orange · S3 lime. Oscillator panel = CVD-norm/Disp-norm bars. Click any chart for full size.

2022-01  ·  21 sessions
2022-02  ·  20 sessions
2022-03  ·  23 sessions
2022-04  ·  20 sessions
2022-05  ·  22 sessions
2022-06  ·  22 sessions
2022-07  ·  15 sessions
2022-08  ·  23 sessions
2022-09  ·  22 sessions
2022-10  ·  21 sessions
2022-11  ·  22 sessions
2022-12  ·  21 sessions
2023-01  ·  21 sessions
2023-02  ·  20 sessions
2023-03  ·  23 sessions
2023-04  ·  20 sessions
2023-05  ·  23 sessions
2023-06  ·  22 sessions
2023-07  ·  21 sessions
2023-08  ·  23 sessions
2023-09  ·  21 sessions
2023-10  ·  22 sessions
2023-11  ·  22 sessions
2023-12  ·  20 sessions
2024-01  ·  22 sessions
2024-02  ·  21 sessions
2024-03  ·  20 sessions
2024-04  ·  22 sessions
2024-05  ·  23 sessions
2024-06  ·  20 sessions
2024-07  ·  23 sessions
2024-08  ·  22 sessions
2024-09  ·  21 sessions
2024-10  ·  23 sessions
2024-11  ·  21 sessions
2024-12  ·  21 sessions
2025-01  ·  22 sessions
2025-02  ·  20 sessions
2025-03  ·  21 sessions
2025-04  ·  21 sessions
2025-05  ·  22 sessions
2025-06  ·  21 sessions
2025-07  ·  23 sessions
2025-08  ·  21 sessions
2025-09  ·  22 sessions
2025-10  ·  23 sessions
2025-11  ·  20 sessions
2025-12  ·  22 sessions
2026-01  ·  21 sessions
2026-02  ·  20 sessions
2026-03  ·  22 sessions
2026-04  ·  22 sessions
2026-05  ·  21 sessions
2026-06  ·  22 sessions
2026-07  ·  3 sessions
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