08:30 Economic Release Playbook — how NQ reacts to US data

Validation scorecard

1 · Event snapshots

Each card is one recurring 08:30 ET release. The chart shows every event day from 08:00 to 11:00 (faint lines, % from the pre-release price). The green line is the median path on days the first 5 minutes went up; the red line is the median on days they went down. Tap a card for the full profile and the backtest grid.

2 · How much it moves, and when

Median move in each time window, as a multiple of the same window on days with no 08:30 release. 1.0× is a normal morning. CPI and NFP make the release minute 10–20× normal, but by 10:00 almost every event is back near 1×. The extra volatility is spent before the cash open.

3 · Does the first move stick?

Share of days where the later move went the same way as the early move. 50% is a coin flip; below 50% (red) means the first move tends to reverse. NFP's first 5-minute move reverses by 09:29 most of the time. Most other events sit close to 50%.

4 · Does the number itself matter?

5 · Backtest atlas — simple rules around each release

Strongest leads (sorted by random-direction p-value)

Per trade: 1 NQ contract, 0.5 pt slippage + $9 commission round trip. "Control" = the same rule on days with no 08:30 release. A lead needs FDR q ≤ 0.10 to count as real; none reach it.

6 · What to build from this

7 · Data & method