Oct contract 3.875% vs current 3.63% — fully priced · ~40% odds of another by Oct · first hike since Jul 2023
Closest history
8 priced hikes
2022–23 · the biggest Fed days in the sample: after-2pm range 3.6%, closed up 5 of 8, 3 sold hard through the presser
Rule of thumb · after-2pm travel
2× the morning
3× on hike days · morning high or low broken 95% of the time · 2pm price revisited 84%
Scaled to today’s ±1.1% implied day
NQ 640–880 pts
ES 170–230 pts after 2pm · reaches the 28,780 floor or 29,600 ceiling from a 2pm price near 29,200
What this study shows: Across 37 FOMC decisions the morning is positioning and the afternoon is the move. After-2pm travel runs about 2× the morning range (3× on hike days), the afternoon breaks the morning high or low 95% of the time, and the 2pm price is revisited 84% of the time — the first move fades. The first five-minute move is reversed by the close 46% of the time, and on hike days the day’s extreme prints in the last 30 minutes 9 times in 11. Going into Wednesday the market has a +25bp hike fully priced; the closest history is the eight priced hikes of 2022–23, the biggest Fed days in the sample.
01 · The Fed-day clock
Four windows, each with its own job.
9:30 – 2:00
quiet · positioning
median range 0.8% · mark the high and low
2:00 – 2:30
statement
±0.2% typical · reverses half the time
2:30 – 3:30
presser + projections
±0.55% by 3:00 · the real move
3:30 – 4:00
the run into the close
extreme set here 51% · hikes 82%
02 · NQ · Nasdaq 100
37 Fed days since Jan 2022 · 1-minute bars · pts at 29,200
After-2pm range (typical)
1.6% · 464 pts
hikes 3.6% (1,051) · holds 1.4% (394)
Morning range (9:30→2pm)
0.8% · 240 pts
after-2pm ≈ ×2.0 the morning · hikes ×3.1
Furthest move from 2pm
+0.8% / -0.8%
hikes +1.5% / -1.7% · holds +0.6% / -0.5%
Closed above the 2pm price
19/37
hikes 6/11 · holds 9/20 — a coin flip
2pm price revisited after 2:30
84%
hikes 10/11 · holds 16/20 — the first move fades
Morning high or low broken after 2pm
95%
hikes 11/11 · holds 18/20
Day’s extreme set in last 30 min
51%
hikes 9/11 · holds 8/20 — the late move carries
First 5-min move reversed by close
46%
hikes 6/11 · holds 8/20 — the 2:01 print means nothing
Every Fed day vs its own 9:30 open ≈ NQ pts @ 29,200
Each line is one Fed day since 2022, measured from its own 9:30 open · red = hike · white = hold · green = cut · shaded = typical furthest high/low reached (morning, then after 2pm, each restarted) · dotted grey = most extreme · red dashed = hike days.
Per meeting · morning vs afternoon
Per meeting, vs the 9:30 open · faint bar = morning high/low (9:30→2pm), tick = 2pm price · solid bar = after-2pm high/low, thick tick = close · label = decision in bp · ▲ = surprise vs what was priced.
03 · ES · S&P 500
37 Fed days since Jan 2022 · 1-minute bars · pts at 7,630
After-2pm range (typical)
1.4% · 106 pts
hikes 2.6% (200) · holds 1.0% (80)
Morning range (9:30→2pm)
0.6% · 44 pts
after-2pm ≈ ×2.6 the morning · hikes ×3.2
Furthest move from 2pm
+0.6% / -0.8%
hikes +1.0% / -1.5% · holds +0.3% / -0.5%
Closed above the 2pm price
17/37
hikes 6/11 · holds 9/20 — a coin flip
2pm price revisited after 2:30
78%
hikes 10/11 · holds 15/20 — the first move fades
Morning high or low broken after 2pm
100%
hikes 11/11 · holds 20/20
Day’s extreme set in last 30 min
57%
hikes 9/11 · holds 9/20 — the late move carries
First 5-min move reversed by close
41%
hikes 5/11 · holds 7/20 — the 2:01 print means nothing
Every Fed day vs its own 9:30 open ≈ ES pts @ 7,630
Each line is one Fed day since 2022, measured from its own 9:30 open · red = hike · white = hold · green = cut · shaded = typical furthest high/low reached (morning, then after 2pm, each restarted) · dotted grey = most extreme · red dashed = hike days.
Per meeting · morning vs afternoon
Per meeting, vs the 9:30 open · faint bar = morning high/low (9:30→2pm), tick = 2pm price · solid bar = after-2pm high/low, thick tick = close · label = decision in bp · ▲ = surprise vs what was priced.
04 · Surprises
The decision is rarely the surprise — the projections and presser are.
May 2022
+3.0%
75bp leaned, Fed did 50 and waved off 75 — best Fed day in the sample
Nov 2022
−2.8%
hike as priced; +1.6% at 2:30, then “higher than expected” in the presser — closed at the low
Dec 2024
−3.6%
cut as priced; the dots removed two 2025 cuts — worst Fed day in the sample
Sep 2024
−0.5%
50bp cut on a 50/50 market; +0.6% at 2:30, faded to the close — even a dovish surprise didn’t hold
05 · How the day and week opened
No edge.
Gap into the Fed day
15 up · 9 down
median 2pm→close −0.09% after gap-ups, −0.21% after gap-downs — the morning is positioning, not information
2pm price in the week’s range
6/11 · 13/26
closed up 6 of 11 from the lower half, 13 of 26 from the upper half — a coin flip either way
Overnight vs morning
0.85% · 0.82%
the overnight session is as big as the 9:30→2pm window — positioning happens overnight
This week
28,816–29,299
Sun open 29,085 · Mon close 29,163 · about −0.8% from Friday going in
06 · Wednesday's plan
The four windows, with the numbers above turned into what to do in each.
9:30–2:00: quiet window (0.8% ≈ NQ 240 pts). Mark the morning high and low — the afternoon breaks one of them 95% of the time. No position on the morning’s direction.
2:00–2:30: statement move ±0.2% (≈ 60 pts), reversed half the time; the 2pm price is revisited 84% of the time — fade the first spike back to 2pm.
2:30–3:30: the real move (±0.55% by 3:00; hikes ±1.1%). Trade the direction the desk’s buyer/seller read confirms after 2:45.
3:30–4:00: on hike days the extreme printed in the last 30 minutes 9 of 11 times — don’t fade the late move.
The bad shape: pop on the statement, sold through the presser, close at the low (Sep/Nov/Dec 2022). If the big-lot count stays seller-heavy through 2:45 after a pop, that’s the one.
The Bias Desk · live on Fed day
Watch the buyer / seller read at 2:45, not the 2:01 print.
The desk scores the tape every thirty seconds — big-lot buyers vs sellers, delta, VWAP, the options walls — so the presser move shows up as it happens.