History points to bigger moves, not a dependable direction. The one strong midterm result plays out over months, not days.
What was tested: how NQ moves around NFP, jobless claims and US elections, applied to Wednesday's 28,567 close after Democrats won both chambers. Headline: expect bigger moves, not a dependable direction. Thursday's middle-50% close is about 28,272–28,707 and Friday's about 27,985–28,979, and the one strong midterm result plays out over 3–12 months. Verdict: the move-size findings hold up; next-2-day direction does not.
| Check | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Data splice | PASS | The two NQ data sources matched within 1.25 pts on 7 overlap days; NQ vs NDX daily correlation 0.9955 |
| NFP and claims move size | PASS | First-5-minute moves are larger than on quiet mornings in both 2010–21 and 2022–26 (p < 0.01) |
| Band coverage | FLAG | 80% band held 79% since 2016 and 75% since 2022; 50% band held 47% and 48%, so the bands run slightly narrow |
| NFP direction | FAIL | Closed up 51% in 2022–26 and 56% in 2010–21, with neither clearly different from quiet days (p = 0.08 and 0.96) |
| Next-2-day conditions | FAIL | 35 tests, best q = 0.07; none clears q ≤ 0.05 |
| Era stability | FLAG | Thursday before NFP closed up 40% since 2022 but 53% since 2010, so the recent lean may not last |
| Election sample sizes | FLAG | 19 S&P midterms, 10 NDX midterms and 3 two-chamber flips; election p-values aren't corrected for multiple tests |
Plan for a wide range. History points to about 357 points of RTH range Thursday and 379 Friday, with a slight soft lean Thursday and no reliable lean by Friday's close.
NQ fell about 2.4% overnight as early results came in, ran to 28,969 by 10:15, then gave back about 400 points. The broader market rallied much harder than tech. VXN of 25.3 implies about 1.59% a day (455 pts), slightly above the 1.44% (413 pts) that NQ has actually been moving.
| NQ close | Low 10% | Low 25% | Median | High 25% | High 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, 2022+ | 27,686 | 28,272 | 28,473 | 28,707 | 29,079 |
| Thursday, 2010+ | 27,934 | 28,349 | 28,597 | 28,894 | 29,135 |
| Friday, 2022+ | 27,447 | 27,985 | 28,501 | 28,979 | 29,332 |
| Friday, 2010+ | 27,579 | 28,275 | 28,727 | 29,102 | 29,460 |
Past pre-NFP weeks, scaled to current volatility and measured from 28,567. Up-close odds: Thursday 40% since 2022 vs 53% since 2010; Wednesday-to-Friday 46% vs 60%. In walk-forward tests these bands ran slightly narrow, and 90th-percentile RTH ranges reach about 604 pts Thursday and 670 Friday.
| Level | Distance (pts) | By Thu close | By Fri close, 2010+ | By Fri close, 2022+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28,969 today's high | +402 | 28% | 53% | 40% |
| 29,250 | +683 | 10% | 29% | 27% |
| 29,500 | +933 | 4% | 16% | 15% |
| 28,415 today's RTH low | −152 | 64% | 71% | 77% |
| 28,300 Tue close | −267 | 47% | 58% | 67% |
| 28,139 Mon close | −428 | 30% | 44% | 50% |
| 27,616 overnight low | −951 | 9% | 17% | 21% |
Includes overnight trading. Uses close-based highs and lows and assumes today's volatility; tonight's earnings can shift the starting point.
| When (ET) | Event | What's expected |
|---|---|---|
| Wed after close | Arm, Qualcomm, AppLovin, MercadoLibre earnings | Not in any number here; reset the bands from Thursday's open |
| Thu 08:30 | Initial jobless claims (week ended Oct 31) | 4-week average 197,800; no firm consensus available |
| Thu | Challenger layoffs; Bank of England | BoE expected to hike 25bp to 4.00% |
| Thu after close | Airbnb, Atlassian, Microchip, Monster, Cloudflare | Listing is less certain; check times |
| Fri 08:30 | October jobs report | Payrolls about 65K (previews range 63K–84K), prior 29K; unemployment 4.2%; hourly earnings +0.3% m/m in one bank forecast |
NFP day closes up about as often as a quiet day. What changes is size: the first 5 minutes run about 0.36% at the median, about 103 points today, and about 255 on a big print.
| Measure | 2022–26 | 2010–21 | Quiet days, 2022–26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closed up | 50.9% (n=53) | 56.0% (n=134) | 53.9% |
| Average day | −0.29% | +0.09% | +0.04% |
| Median day | +0.10% | +0.10% | — |
| First 5 minutes, average size | 0.45% | 0.27% | 0.07% |
| 08:30–09:30 range vs normal | 2.06× | 2.18× | 1.02× |
| Full RTH range vs normal | 1.31× | 1.18× | 1.07× |
| First 5-min move reversed by 09:30 | 61% | 50% | — |
| First 5-min move reversed by close | 54% | 50% | — |
The 2022–26 average of −0.29% comes from a few large selloffs; the median is +0.10% (p = 0.08 vs quiet days). The 61% reversal by 09:30 did not hold in 2010–21, and the pre-registered fade from the earlier 08:30 study failed out of sample.
| Payroll print, 2022+ | Prints | Closed up | Average day | Median day | Average first 5 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 100K | 8 | 62% | −0.18% | +0.39% | +0.15% |
| 100K–250K | 23 | 57% | −0.30% | +0.13% | +0.17% |
| 250K and up | 22 | 41% | −0.30% | −0.26% | −0.34% |
Stronger prints have hit NQ in the first 5 minutes, but that link fades by the close (correlation −0.05). "Under 100K" is the base case this month, and it has only 8 prints, so it's thin. With the 10-year near 4.89% and two Fed dissenters favoring a hike at the last meeting, a hot number could hurt more than a soft one helps. That part is a judgment call, not a tested result.
| Date | Payrolls (K) | Unemp. | Prior day | First 5 min | Rest of day | Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | 29 | — | +0.26% | +0.46% | −0.16% | +0.97% |
| 2026-09-04 | 162 | 4.1% | +1.17% | −0.40% | +0.05% | +0.13% |
| 2026-08-07 | -23 | 4.1% | −0.37% | +0.31% | +0.27% | +1.14% |
| 2026-07-02 | 57 | 4.2% | −1.42% | +0.37% | −2.43% | −1.80% |
| 2026-06-05 | 172 | 4.3% | −0.49% | −0.20% | −3.48% | −4.82% |
| 2026-05-08 | 115 | 4.3% | −0.09% | +0.16% | +1.40% | +2.29% |
| 2026-03-06 | -92 | 4.4% | −0.29% | −0.14% | −0.63% | −1.52% |
| 2026-02-11 | 130 | 4.3% | −0.47% | +0.43% | −0.33% | +0.23% |
| 2026-01-09 | 50 | 4.4% | −0.59% | +0.18% | +0.59% | +0.98% |
| 2025-12-16 | 64 | 4.6% | −0.50% | +0.21% | +0.12% | — |
| 2025-11-20 | 119 | 4.4% | +0.57% | +0.21% | −4.16% | −2.37% |
| 2025-09-05 | 22 | 4.3% | +0.91% | +0.20% | −0.58% | +0.10% |
| 2025-08-01 | 73 | 4.2% | −0.55% | −0.25% | −0.78% | −2.03% |
| 2025-06-06 | 139 | 4.2% | −0.78% | +0.35% | +0.15% | +0.94% |
| 2025-05-02 | 177 | 4.2% | +1.20% | +0.39% | +0.83% | +1.55% |
| 2025-04-04 | 228 | 4.2% | −5.37% | +0.41% | −3.74% | −6.16% |
| 2025-03-07 | 151 | 4.1% | −2.74% | +0.36% | +0.19% | +0.66% |
| 2025-02-07 | 143 | 4.0% | +0.50% | −0.03% | −1.14% | −1.29% |
| 2025-01-10 | 256 | 4.1% | +0.01% | −1.09% | −0.25% | −1.61% |
| 2024-12-06 | 227 | 4.2% | −0.29% | +0.16% | +0.69% | +0.85% |
| 2024-11-01 | 12 | 4.1% | −2.55% | +0.09% | +0.08% | +0.68% |
| 2024-10-04 | 254 | 4.1% | −0.11% | +0.29% | +0.51% | +1.20% |
| 2024-09-06 | 142 | 4.2% | +0.10% | +0.33% | −2.14% | −2.73% |
| 2024-08-02 | 114 | 4.3% | −2.41% | −0.83% | +0.03% | −2.45% |
| 2024-07-05 | 206 | 4.1% | +1.04% | +0.04% | +0.82% | +1.80% |
| 2024-06-07 | 272 | 4.0% | −0.06% | −0.44% | +0.17% | −0.13% |
| 2024-05-03 | 175 | 3.9% | +1.24% | +0.84% | +0.52% | +2.00% |
| 2024-04-05 | 303 | 3.8% | −1.61% | +0.08% | +0.75% | +1.21% |
| 2024-03-08 | 275 | 3.9% | +1.47% | +0.18% | −1.51% | −1.47% |
| 2024-02-02 | 353 | 3.7% | +1.17% | −0.47% | +1.16% | +1.66% |
| 2024-01-05 | 216 | 3.7% | −0.59% | −0.23% | +0.56% | +0.12% |
| 2023-12-08 | 199 | 3.7% | +1.39% | −0.34% | +1.08% | +0.40% |
| 2023-11-03 | 150 | 3.9% | +1.74% | +0.68% | +0.74% | +1.17% |
| 2023-10-06 | 336 | 3.8% | −0.36% | −1.36% | +2.94% | +1.66% |
| 2023-09-01 | 187 | 3.8% | +0.20% | +0.38% | −0.71% | −0.08% |
| 2023-08-04 | 187 | 3.5% | −0.25% | −0.06% | −0.63% | −0.47% |
| 2023-07-07 | 209 | 3.6% | −0.81% | +0.63% | −0.83% | −0.34% |
| 2023-06-02 | 339 | 3.7% | +1.20% | −0.01% | +0.29% | +0.73% |
| 2023-05-05 | 253 | 3.4% | −0.40% | −0.19% | +1.67% | +2.12% |
| 2023-03-10 | 311 | 3.6% | −1.84% | +0.69% | −2.03% | −1.37% |
| 2023-02-03 | 517 | 3.4% | +3.50% | −0.75% | −0.20% | −1.79% |
| 2023-01-06 | 223 | 3.5% | −1.60% | +0.75% | +2.44% | +2.72% |
| 2022-12-02 | 263 | 3.7% | +0.07% | −2.08% | +1.96% | −0.38% |
| 2022-11-04 | 261 | 3.7% | −1.95% | −0.47% | +1.42% | +1.57% |
| 2022-10-07 | 263 | 3.5% | −0.81% | −0.91% | −2.83% | −3.84% |
| 2022-09-02 | 315 | 3.7% | +0.03% | +0.71% | −2.15% | −1.42% |
| 2022-08-05 | 528 | 3.5% | +0.44% | −1.14% | +0.25% | −0.78% |
| 2022-07-08 | 372 | 3.6% | +2.11% | −0.51% | +0.97% | +0.16% |
| 2022-06-03 | 390 | 3.6% | +2.74% | +0.36% | −1.92% | −2.64% |
| 2022-05-06 | 428 | 3.6% | −4.98% | +0.49% | −1.24% | −1.29% |
| 2022-04-01 | 431 | 3.6% | −1.40% | −0.18% | −0.42% | −0.07% |
| 2022-03-04 | 678 | 3.8% | −1.42% | +0.32% | −0.95% | −1.44% |
| 2022-02-04 | 467 | 4.0% | −4.04% | −0.94% | +1.41% | +1.22% |
| 2022-01-07 | 199 | 3.9% | −0.04% | −0.16% | −0.95% | −1.10% |
Claims move NQ about 19 points in the first 5 minutes at the median, against about 13 on a quiet morning. The range barely changes, and direction is weak.
| Measure | Claims-only Thu, 2022–26 | Claims-only Thu, 2010–21 | Thu before NFP, 2022–26 | Quiet days, 2022–26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Closed up | 46.0% (n=139) | 54.8% | 42.0% (n=50) | 55.2% |
| Average day | −0.13% | +0.05% | −0.33% | +0.06% |
| First 5 minutes, average size | 0.10% | 0.08% | 0.10% | 0.06% |
| 08:30–09:30 range vs normal | 1.15× | 1.29× | 1.25× | 0.99× |
| Full RTH range vs normal | 1.13× | 1.16× | 1.15× | 1.06× |
Thursdays with claims as the only major release closed up 46% since 2022 vs 55% on quiet days (p = 0.07). The 14 largest week-over-week jumps closed up only 29%, averaging −1.00%; the 14 largest drops closed up 43%, averaging −0.21%. That's a small sample, but it's the one claims result worth watching. Thursdays before NFP behave like any other claims Thursday.
The next two sessions are close to a coin flip. The real midterm effect comes later: the S&P was higher 63 sessions on in 89% of midterms and higher 252 sessions on in all 19.
| Group | n | Thu up | Fri up | 2 days up | 2-day avg | 2-day median | +63 sessions | +252 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Midterms | 19 | 53% | 63% | 63% | +0.63% | +0.34% | +6.71% | +14.61% |
| Presidential | 19 | 68% | 53% | 58% | −0.27% | +0.11% | +3.53% | +8.74% |
| Midterm, a chamber flipped | 8 | 50% | 50% | 50% | +0.95% | +0.04% | +6.20% | +12.27% |
| Midterm, both chambers flipped | 3 | 33% | 33% | 33% | −0.06% | −0.35% | +6.49% | +20.79% |
| 2nd-term midterm | 5 | 60% | 60% | 60% | +0.43% | +0.41% | +6.87% | +8.32% |
| All elections since 2010 | 8 | 75% | 62% | 75% | +1.27% | +0.77% | +5.90% | +16.34% |
| Midterm, index up day after | 15 | 47% | 67% | 60% | +0.23% | +0.34% | +6.24% | +12.40% |
| Group | n | Thu up | Fri up | 2 days up | 2-day avg | 2-day median | +63 sessions | +252 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Midterms | 10 | 50% | 40% | 60% | +0.62% | +0.13% | +11.08% | +33.02% |
| Presidential | 10 | 50% | 80% | 50% | −0.24% | +0.16% | +4.27% | +18.89% |
| Midterm, a chamber flipped | 7 | 43% | 29% | 57% | +1.00% | +0.08% | +6.41% | +20.45% |
| Midterm, both chambers flipped | 2 | 0% | 50% | 50% | −0.40% | −0.40% | +3.04% | +31.45% |
| 2nd-term midterm | 4 | 50% | 50% | 75% | +0.27% | +0.13% | +15.40% | +29.80% |
| All elections since 2010 | 8 | 62% | 62% | 62% | +1.29% | +0.74% | +6.76% | +24.88% |
| Midterm, index up day after | 7 | 29% | 29% | 43% | −0.90% | −0.87% | +8.22% | +29.96% |
Forward returns start from the close of the day after the election, which is today's close. p-values here aren't corrected for multiple tests.
| Election | Type | Overnight low | Day after | Thu | Fri | Wed→Fri | Events Thu / Fri |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | midterm | −0.03% | +0.40% | +1.24% | −0.01% | +1.23% | — / NFP |
| 2012 | pres | −1.06% | −2.37% | −1.56% | +0.37% | −1.20% | — / — |
| 2014 | midterm | −0.20% | +0.00% | +0.31% | −0.08% | +0.23% | — / NFP |
| 2016 | pres | −5.06% | +0.40% | −1.63% | +0.08% | −1.55% | — / — |
| 2018 | midterm | −0.33% | +3.07% | −0.58% | −1.71% | −2.28% | FOMC / PPI |
| 2020 | pres | −0.16% | +4.47% | +2.61% | +0.11% | +2.72% | FOMC / NFP |
| 2022 | midterm | −0.75% | −2.37% | +7.37% | +1.88% | +9.39% | CPI / — |
| 2024 | pres | −0.08% | +2.72% | +1.57% | +0.06% | +1.63% | FOMC / — |
The closest match to today's tape is 2016: a 5% overnight drop that closed up 0.4%, then tech rotated lower the next day (−1.6%) with a flat Friday. In 2010, 2014 and 2020 NFP fell on the Friday after the election and NQ moved 0.11% or less each time. Those are small samples, and Friday's bands remain the better guide.
| Year | Flipped | S&P day after | S&P Thu | S&P Fri | S&P +63 | NDX day after | NDX Thu | NDX Fri | NDX +63 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | House | −2.1% | +5.5% | +0.9% | +9.1% | −2.4% | +7.5% | +1.8% | +14.0% |
| 2018 | House | +2.1% | −0.2% | −0.9% | −3.7% | +3.1% | −0.6% | −1.7% | −4.1% |
| 2014 | Senate | +0.6% | +0.4% | +0.0% | +1.6% | −0.1% | +0.3% | −0.1% | +1.8% |
| 2010 | House | +0.4% | +1.9% | +0.4% | +9.1% | +0.3% | +1.4% | −0.1% | +7.6% |
| 2006 | both | +0.2% | −0.5% | +0.2% | +3.4% | +0.5% | −0.6% | +0.6% | +1.6% |
| 2002 | — | +0.9% | −2.3% | −0.9% | −10.2% | +1.5% | −3.8% | −1.7% | −10.2% |
| 1998 | — | +0.7% | +1.4% | +0.6% | +10.8% | +2.3% | +0.6% | +1.1% | +38.7% |
| 1994 | both | −0.1% | −0.2% | −0.4% | +3.2% | +0.2% | −0.5% | −0.3% | +4.4% |
| 1990 | — | −1.8% | +0.5% | +2.0% | +16.5% | −1.8% | +0.3% | +2.5% | +37.5% |
| 1986 | Senate | +0.1% | −0.3% | −0.0% | +14.0% | +0.1% | −0.5% | −0.3% | +19.5% |
| 1982 | — | +3.9% | −0.7% | +0.2% | +0.2% | — | — | — | — |
| 1978 | — | +0.6% | −0.0% | +0.4% | +3.4% | — | — | — | — |
| 1974 | — | −0.5% | +0.6% | −0.4% | +5.1% | — | — | — | — |
| 1970 | — | +0.2% | −0.3% | +0.1% | +14.5% | — | — | — | — |
| 1966 | — | +0.8% | +0.6% | +0.1% | +7.3% | — | — | — | — |
| 1962 | — | +0.6% | −0.7% | +0.8% | +12.7% | — | — | — | — |
| 1958 | — | +0.9% | +0.8% | −0.4% | +4.5% | — | — | — | — |
| 1954 | both | +2.0% | +1.2% | −0.3% | +12.8% | — | — | — | — |
| 1950 | — | +1.0% | +1.2% | +0.8% | +12.9% | — | — | — | — |
Past days like today point in different directions: slightly soft the next day, slightly up two days out. None clears the q ≤ 0.05 bar.
| Condition true today | n | Next day up | Next-day avg | q | 2 days up | 2-day avg | q |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overnight low ≥1.5% below prior close, closed above it | 56 | 45% | −0.44% | 0.07 | 64% | +0.15% | 0.99 |
| Same, scaled to volatility (≥1.5σ) | 31 | 55% | −0.23% | 0.34 | 68% | +0.41% | 0.54 |
| VIX down 15%+ with NDX up | 80 | 49% | −0.34% | 0.10 | 59% | −0.42% | 0.10 |
| NDX 7–13% below 1-yr high, up 0.5–1.5% | 327 | 59% | +0.22% | 0.22 | 61% | +0.44% | 0.07 |
| S&P beat NDX by 0.5+, S&P +1%, since 2010 | 44 | 55% | +0.08% | 0.99 | 70% | +0.75% | 0.07 |
| Up day, closed in lower third, range ≥1.5× | 12 | 42% | −0.39% | 0.34 | 55% | −0.26% | 0.57 |
| Wednesday before NFP Friday, 2022+ | 51 | 41% | −0.36% | 0.13 | 47% | −0.57% | 0.07 |
Selected from 35 tested combinations, with q-values across all 35. These conditions overlap, so they aren't independent votes. The volatility-scaled washout weakens the absolute one (55% up vs 45%). Baseline next-day up rate is about 55%.
The hard part is resisting a confident story about a move that history says has no reliable direction.
Event sources: NBC · Yahoo Finance · Yardeni · StockTitan earnings calendar · BLS September jobs report · FinancialJuice NFP preview · Continuum Economics preview · US News on ADP · IBTimes on ADP