NQ median −0.5% ≈ 150 pts (fully-priced hikes −0.8%) · fills the same day only 4 of 11 · all meetings lean the other way: up 21/36, +0.3%
Thursday session after a hike
red and trending
NQ closes below the Fed-day close 7 of 11 · net −0.7% · range 2.3% ≈ 680 pts · trend-ness 0.58 · Fed-day low broken 7 of 11
Friday after a hike
bounce, then chop
NQ net +0.5% · gap mixed (5/11 up) and fills 7/11 · trend-ness 0.40 · the power hour reverses the day 7 of 11 times
The hour to trade
Thursday’s first hour
direction matched the day 8/11 · trend-ness 0.62, the cleanest segment of the two days · midday has the biggest range · power hour is chop (0.24)
Why this study: the Fed-day playbook covers 2:00 to 4:00. Most of the week’s P&L happens after that. This looks at the two sessions that follow every decision since 2022 — how the next morning opens, whether the Fed-day move carries or reverses, and which part of the day actually trends — with the eleven rate-hike weeks pulled out, because that is the setup on the table this week.
The short version: after a hike, Thursday opens gap down (8 of 11) and the gap mostly holds; Thursday is a red, trending day that breaks the Fed-day low; the first hour is the cleanest trade of the two days; Friday bounces but chops, and the power hour reverses the day more often than not. Across all meetings the two days are a coin flip on direction with normal ranges — the hike signature is the specific pattern.
01 · NQ · Nasdaq 100
37 meetings · points scaled to 29,400 (Dec contract) · % on the right axis
Thursday gap · after a hike
down 8 of 11
median -0.53% ≈ 155 pts · a gap of 0.5%+ on 9/11 · all meetings: up 21/36, median +0.32%
Does Thursday’s gap fill?
4 of 11 · hikes
all meetings 15/36 · after a hike, plan for the gap to hold, not fill
Thursday close vs Fed-day close
below 7 of 11 · hikes
continues the Fed-day direction 7/11 · all meetings above 20/36 — a coin flip
Thursday range · trend or chop?
2.3% ≈ 680 pts
hikes · net -0.68% · trend-ness 0.58 (a trend day) · overnight range 1.4% · all meetings 1.7% / 0.52
Friday · after a hike
net +0.53% ≈ 155 pts
gap up 5/11, fills 7/11 · above Fed close 6/11 · trend-ness 0.40 (choppier)
Which hour carries Thursday
first hour 8/11
hikes · first-hour direction = day direction · midday 9/11 · power hour 7/11 · first-hour trend-ness 0.62
Thursday segment ranges · hikes
381 · 510 · 246
first · midday · power hour, in pts · 1.3% / 1.7% / 0.8%
Fed-day range revisited
low broken 7/11 · high 4/11
hikes, Thursday · Friday: low 5, high 5 · all meetings Thursday: low 16, high 20
The rest of the week, from the 2pm decision NQ pts @ 29,400 (left) · % (right)
Every meeting since 2022 vs its own 2:00pm price on decision day · red = hike · white = hold · green = cut · green line = middle of all meetings (band = middle half) · dashed red = middle of hike weeks · overnight gaps hidden. Panels: Wednesday is the decision day, 2:00 → 4:00; Thursday and Friday are the full 9:30 → 4:00 sessions.
Which hour to trade · typical range by segment
First hour 9:30–10:30
Midday 10:30–3:00
Power hour 3:00–4:00
Thursday (D+1) hikes
381 pts
net -116 · trend-ness 0.62 · matched the day 8/11
510 pts
net -91 · trend-ness 0.43 · matched the day 9/11
246 pts
net +31 · trend-ness 0.24 · matched the day 7/11
Thursday (D+1) all meetings
271 pts
net -82 · trend-ness 0.48 · matched the day 28/36
354 pts
net -33 · trend-ness 0.44 · matched the day 27/36
158 pts
net +1 · trend-ness 0.38 · matched the day 24/36
Friday (D+2) hikes
428 pts
net +24 · trend-ness 0.53 · matched the day 10/11
425 pts
net +61 · trend-ness 0.47 · matched the day 10/11
209 pts
net +31 · trend-ness 0.43 · matched the day 4/11
Friday (D+2) all meetings
268 pts
net -15 · trend-ness 0.51 · matched the day 30/36
328 pts
net +3 · trend-ness 0.44 · matched the day 30/36
145 pts
net +18 · trend-ness 0.39 · matched the day 17/36
bar = typical range · trend-ness = (close − open) ÷ range · 1.0 = straight line, 0 = pure chop · “matched the day” = segment direction equalled the day’s direction.
The gap at the next open NQ pts @ 29,400 (left) · % (right)
The gap at the next open vs the prior close · solid = Thursday (D+1), faint = Friday (D+2) · ● = that gap filled during the session · green tick = the Fed-day 2pm→close move, for reference.
D+1 · the day after the decision · three bars per meeting vs that day’s 9:30 open = first hour 9:30–10:30 (faint) · midday 10:30–3:00 · power hour 3:00–4:00 (solid) · tick = segment close (bright = day close) · dotted = previous close, i.e. the gap · label = decision in bp.
D+2 · two days after · three bars per meeting vs that day’s 9:30 open = first hour 9:30–10:30 (faint) · midday 10:30–3:00 · power hour 3:00–4:00 (solid) · tick = segment close (bright = day close) · dotted = previous close, i.e. the gap · label = decision in bp.
02 · ES · S&P 500
37 meetings · points scaled to 7,680 (Dec contract) · % on the right axis
Thursday gap · after a hike
down 7 of 11
median -0.30% ≈ 23 pts · a gap of 0.5%+ on 7/11 · all meetings: up 23/36, median +0.34%
Does Thursday’s gap fill?
5 of 11 · hikes
all meetings 19/36 · after a hike, plan for the gap to hold, not fill
Thursday close vs Fed-day close
below 7 of 11 · hikes
continues the Fed-day direction 7/11 · all meetings above 20/36 — a coin flip
Thursday range · trend or chop?
1.9% ≈ 143 pts
hikes · net -0.52% · trend-ness 0.50 (a trend day) · overnight range 1.0% · all meetings 1.2% / 0.52
Friday · after a hike
net +0.18% ≈ 13 pts
gap up 4/11, fills 6/11 · above Fed close 7/11 · trend-ness 0.36 (choppier)
Which hour carries Thursday
first hour 7/11
hikes · first-hour direction = day direction · midday 8/11 · power hour 7/11 · first-hour trend-ness 0.67
Thursday segment ranges · hikes
70 · 98 · 56
first · midday · power hour, in pts · 0.9% / 1.3% / 0.7%
Fed-day range revisited
low broken 8/11 · high 4/11
hikes, Thursday · Friday: low 6, high 4 · all meetings Thursday: low 17, high 17
The rest of the week, from the 2pm decision ES pts @ 7,680 (left) · % (right)
Every meeting since 2022 vs its own 2:00pm price on decision day · red = hike · white = hold · green = cut · green line = middle of all meetings (band = middle half) · dashed red = middle of hike weeks · overnight gaps hidden. Panels: Wednesday is the decision day, 2:00 → 4:00; Thursday and Friday are the full 9:30 → 4:00 sessions.
Which hour to trade · typical range by segment
First hour 9:30–10:30
Midday 10:30–3:00
Power hour 3:00–4:00
Thursday (D+1) hikes
70 pts
net -22 · trend-ness 0.67 · matched the day 7/11
98 pts
net -16 · trend-ness 0.50 · matched the day 8/11
56 pts
net -0 · trend-ness 0.25 · matched the day 7/11
Thursday (D+1) all meetings
50 pts
net -9 · trend-ness 0.56 · matched the day 26/36
71 pts
net +9 · trend-ness 0.51 · matched the day 26/36
35 pts
net -1 · trend-ness 0.52 · matched the day 22/36
Friday (D+2) hikes
79 pts
net +12 · trend-ness 0.48 · matched the day 8/11
101 pts
net +10 · trend-ness 0.42 · matched the day 8/11
44 pts
net +10 · trend-ness 0.52 · matched the day 5/11
Friday (D+2) all meetings
52 pts
net -5 · trend-ness 0.46 · matched the day 22/36
70 pts
net +5 · trend-ness 0.47 · matched the day 29/36
31 pts
net +6 · trend-ness 0.42 · matched the day 20/36
bar = typical range · trend-ness = (close − open) ÷ range · 1.0 = straight line, 0 = pure chop · “matched the day” = segment direction equalled the day’s direction.
The gap at the next open ES pts @ 7,680 (left) · % (right)
The gap at the next open vs the prior close · solid = Thursday (D+1), faint = Friday (D+2) · ● = that gap filled during the session · green tick = the Fed-day 2pm→close move, for reference.
Thursday, meeting by meeting ES pts @ 7,680 (left) · % (right)
D+1 · the day after the decision · three bars per meeting vs that day’s 9:30 open = first hour 9:30–10:30 (faint) · midday 10:30–3:00 · power hour 3:00–4:00 (solid) · tick = segment close (bright = day close) · dotted = previous close, i.e. the gap · label = decision in bp.
Friday, meeting by meeting ES pts @ 7,680 (left) · % (right)
D+2 · two days after · three bars per meeting vs that day’s 9:30 open = first hour 9:30–10:30 (faint) · midday 10:30–3:00 · power hour 3:00–4:00 (solid) · tick = segment close (bright = day close) · dotted = previous close, i.e. the gap · label = decision in bp.
03 · Thursday / Friday plan
The two sessions after the decision, with the numbers above turned into what to do in each.
Thursday open: after a hike, expect a gap down (8 of 11; median −0.5% ≈ NQ 150 pts, ES −0.3% ≈ 25 pts) and don’t trade for the fill — it held 7 of 11 times. The Fed-day low is the level: it broke 7 of 11.
Thursday 9:30–10:30 is the trade. Typical range ≈ 380 NQ pts, the most directional segment of the two days (trend-ness 0.62), and its direction matched the day’s 8 of 11. Go with it; don’t fade it.
Thursday midday has the biggest range (≈ 500 pts) but grinds (0.43) — continuation with pullbacks, not a clean leg. Power hour is chop (0.24) with a small late bounce: take profits into 3:00, don’t add.
Friday is the bounce day (NQ +0.5% net on hikes) but trend-ness drops to 0.40. The first hour still sets the tone (10/11), then the power hour reverses the day 7 of 11 — and this Friday is quad witching, so size down after 3:00.
All 37 meetings: Thursday and Friday are a coin flip on direction (above the Fed close 20/36 and 22/36), gaps lean up (+0.3%), ranges normal (1.7%). The gap-down / red-Thursday / choppy-Friday shape is the hike signature — from 2022–23 when volatility was higher, so scale the point figures to the current ±1.1% implied day (roughly two-thirds).
The Bias Desk · NQ/ES front-contract 1-minute bars · rate expectations from Fed funds futures (the FedWatch method) · not advice
The Bias Desk · Thursday morning
The first hour is the trade. Watch the read at the open.
The desk scores the tape every thirty seconds — big-lot buyers vs sellers, delta, VWAP, the options walls — so you see whether the gap is holding before you commit.